Last weeks plays went 1-1 (3-1 on the year) with the Falcons winning a barn burner at home against the Eagles as an underdog while the Steelers weren't able to upend the Seahawks on their home field losing by 2 as a -3.5 point favorite. My two stay aways were "2-0" in that the angle I would have used to bet on them did not hold up and I knew there was something fishy with those lines. The Saints on the revenge angle I typically like but knew to stay away from didn't come through as the Rams won easily and Drew Brees was injured during the game all but sealing any hope of a Saints upset win. The Chargers meanwhile had every opportunity to win the game in Detroit and just couldn't put it together, eventually losing outright as a small favorite. The Lions got some favorable penalty calls while Rivers threw a dumb pick in the end zone at one juncture in the game.

Road Underdog Sunday

There are many road underdogs I like this week and I will get into why but I'm only going to select a few to actually bet on. Bengals travel to Buffalo and are sitting at +6, I like the Bengals here for a number of reasons. 1. they showed up week 1 as a huge road underdog and nearly pulled off the upset, 2. The Bills haven't beaten a good team even though they're 2-0, the Giants and Jets have looked terrible and they trailed the Jets for much of the first game before coming back late to win it, 3. The Bills have the Patriots on deck next week and I believe they will be looking ahead to that matchup with their division rival/defending Super Bowl Champs.

Denver goes into Green Bay getting over a TD at +7.5. This line seems a little too high for a few reasons 1. Denver is in desperation mode after going 0-2 to start the year, 2. Green Bay hosts the Eagles on Thursday night this week, not that they're looking ahead, but the game plan they use may take that into consideration 3. A lot of the teams that play on Thursday have a propensity to win close or get upset the Sunday prior for whatever reason, especially when they're a large favorite. For those reasons I have to like Denver with the points.

Ravens travel to Arrowhead getting +6. This game was played last year and ended up in OT with the Chiefs squeaking out a 3 point win. This Raven team is now Lamar Jacksons and the offense has been set up for him to be successful. I hear a lot of "the Ravens haven't played anyone" well they played this team last year and damn near upset them, I say that's worth something and they will no doubt be up for this game and give full effort to try and win it. Getting 6 points here is a gift and I believe there's a shot they win outright. The KC defense has been atrocious and with the new offense of the Ravens I think they can score enough to at least keep pace with the Chiefs.

My under the radar road dog is the Saints going into Seattle at +5. The last time Teddy Bridgewater played this team was in the playoffs for Minnesota losing 10-9. I think he's going to have plenty of motivation and the Seahawks as mentioned earlier almost allowed the Bengals to upset them at home, with Bridgewater having a week to prepare with the first team I think we see him make the most of this opportunity and maybe play for some revenge to atone that playoff loss just a few years ago.

The Two Games I'm Betting

I like all of the games above that I covered but I'm going to narrow my bets to only two. I think at least 2 of the above games has an underdog win outright to bust up all the obvious teaser plays. I'm going to bet on the Broncos +7.5, for all the reasons I listed above and the fact the Packers are fresh off 2 tough divisional matchups. Denver needs a win to turn their season around, I don't know if they get it, but I think they're able to keep it close assuming there is not Joe Flacco meltdown.

Next I'm going to take the Ravens +6, I just think this is too many points for a live dog here. The spread should be -3.5 or -4 and even then I would probably still like the Ravens. Mahomes is known for burning me when I pick against him but he can't win against the spread every week, if he's going to lose one, I think this is it.

Game I'm Staying Away From

Browns +3 at home Vs the Rams. Both these teams are off emotional wins. The Rams beating the Saints at home and the Browns defeating the Jets on the road Monday Night to get their first win of the year. The Rams are obviously better but I've always liked taking the home team in a night game angle as the home crowd tends to energize the players to perform well. This is tough spot for the Browns though, they're coming in on a short week and the disappointment of the home opener lingers in everyones mind. The Rams don't have it easy either, criss crossing the country every week since week 1 in Carolina, back home in LA, now to the east coast again to play Cleveland. All in all, I just don't want either side in this game and will enjoy it as a fan.

Good luck with your bets!

Betting / denver broncos

Week 4 NFL Sunday Bets

Week 4 NFL Sunday Bets

Week 4 NFL Sunday Bets

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Week 3 NFL Sunday Bets

Week 3 NFL Sunday Bets